It’s that time of the year again – the Oscars are indeed coming. As it has become my tradition, I will submit my predictions and this time also a short explanation on why I think a certain film will win the category.
All in all, it’s going to be a very interesting Oscars ceremony this year. The #metoo and other hashtag-movements – and I call them hashtag-movements with respect, because I’m still in awe on what these movements have achieved – have dethroned many powerful figures from the American film industry, and the ripples of those splashes have reached all around the world. Finland went through its’ own #metoo outing a bunch of film industry assholes, and now it seems the movement is slowly moving towards music industry – and there I am sure will be a lot of dirt to be unearthed, too.
The awarded films this year were quite a colorful bunch of movies – horror and fantastic realism stir the Best Movie category, which has its’ typical share of political films, coming-of-age stories and smaller, hard-hitting indies. There is more diversity amongst the nominees, which is great, and the topics are braver.
This year’s big nominee is of course Del Toro’s The Shape Of Water, which will most likely steal many categories, but there’s also a lot of things to be said on behalf of other movies. Nevertheless, here are the nominees, my predictions and explanations.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
NOMINEES
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET
Call Me by Your Name
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS
Phantom Thread
DANIEL KALUUYA
Get Out
*** GARY OLDMAN ***
Darkest Hour
Not the most original pick, but I think mr. Oldman nailed the complicated role well and made an immemorable, well fleshed out character out of a very complex personality.
DENZEL WASHINGTON
Roman J. Israel, Esq.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES
WILLEM DAFOE
The Florida Project
WOODY HARRELSON
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
RICHARD JENKINS
The Shape of Water
*** CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER ***
All the Money in the World
Christopher Plummer jumped into the shoes of Kevin Spacey and filled them many times over. While the film itself is not that amazing, Plummer’s role is inseparable, and I can’t understand how Spacey would’ve played any better.
SAM ROCKWELL
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
NOMINEES
SALLY HAWKINS
The Shape of Water
*** FRANCES MCDORMAND ***
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
It’s quite clear Frances McDormand will gather her second Oscar, playing definitely the strongest of all nominees – and they all were very good – in a otherwise pretty mediocre movie, which became great just because of her.
MARGOT ROBBIE
I, Tonya
SAOIRSE RONAN
Lady Bird
MERYL STREEP
The Post
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES
MARY J. BLIGE
Mudbound
ALLISON JANNEY
I, Tonya
*** LESLEY MANVILLE ***
Phantom Thread
This one is pretty hard to guess, since there’s a lot of options but I think the scary, creepy sister in Phantom Thread was probably the most memorable of all roles.
LAURIE METCALF
Lady Bird
OCTAVIA SPENCER
The Shape of Water
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
NOMINEES
THE BOSS BABY
Tom McGrath and Ramsey Naito
THE BREADWINNER
Nora Twomey and Anthony Leo
*** COCO ***
Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson
Only Pixar has the balls to do a children animation talking about death in a colorful, vivid way. The film is impeccable execution of wonderful storytelling, tricky topic and whole family accessability.
FERDINAND
Carlos Saldanha and Lori Forte
LOVING VINCENT
Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman and Ivan Mactaggart
CINEMATOGRAPHY
NOMINEES
*** BLADE RUNNER 2049 ***
Roger A. Deakins
Deakins has been nominated fourteen times for an Oscar, but never won one. Speaking of film-defining craftmanship, Blade Runner’s cinematography is beyond anything I’ve seen in ages. Simply beautiful, wondefully lit and while the film itself is a bit of a meh to me, the visual display Deakins has brought forward is just amazing.
DARKEST HOUR
Bruno Delbonnel
DUNKIRK
Hoyte van Hoytema
MUDBOUND
Rachel Morrison
THE SHAPE OF WATER
Dan Laustsen
COSTUME DESIGN
NOMINEES
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
Jacqueline Durran
DARKEST HOUR
Jacqueline Durran
PHANTOM THREAD
Mark Bridges
*** THE SHAPE OF WATER ***
Luis Sequeira
The world of The Shape of Water is the thing that makes the film so brilliant, and definitely the costumes are a key factor in it. Although I don’t think the film really lives up to the hype, the artistic values of the production design and costumes is the best there is this year.
VICTORIA & ABDUL
Consolata Boyle
DIRECTING
NOMINEES
DUNKIRK
Christopher Nolan
GET OUT
Jordan Peele
LADY BIRD
Greta Gerwig
PHANTOM THREAD
Paul Thomas Anderson
*** THE SHAPE OF WATER ***
Guillermo del Toro
I’m not much of a fan of The Shape of Water, but Del Toro does terrific job in directing the lead actress and taking the story, which is pretty simple, almost a bit dumb, and elevating it into a wonderful cinematic experience, exactly the craftmanship of a director.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
NOMINEES
ABACUS: SMALL ENOUGH TO JAIL
Steve James, Mark Mitten and Julie Goldman
FACES PLACES
Agnès Varda, JR and Rosalie Varda
ICARUS
Bryan Fogel and Dan Cogan
*** LAST MEN IN ALEPPO ***
Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed and Søren Steen Jespersen
Tricky one again, but I believe Last Men in Aleppo deserve the win. Just the fact that someone has stuck their neck out to document the worst humanitarian crisis of our time, and brought up the real heroes of the conflict, the White Helmets, is commendable as itself. As a documentary the slightly staged feel some discussions and elements takes a bit away from its’ novelty value, but when the going gets rough, it’s as real as it can be, in all its’ horror.
STRONG ISLAND
Yance Ford and Joslyn Barnes
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
NOMINEES
EDITH+EDDIE
Laura Checkoway and Thomas Lee Wright
*** HEAVEN IS A TRAFFIC JAM ON THE 405 ***
Frank Stiefel
HEROIN(E)
Elaine McMillion Sheldon and Kerrin Sheldon
KNIFE SKILLS
Thomas Lennon
TRAFFIC STOP
Kate Davis and David Heilbroner
FILM EDITING
NOMINEES
BABY DRIVER
Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
*** DUNKIRK ***
Lee Smith
War movies are extremely hard to put together and maintain the balance, but Lee Smith is able to run the big scale story and make it feel just huge and real.
I, TONYA
Tatiana S. Riegel
THE SHAPE OF WATER
Sidney Wolinsky
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Jon Gregory
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
NOMINEES
A FANTASTIC WOMAN
Chile
THE INSULT
Lebanon
LOVELESS
Russia
ON BODY AND SOUL
Hungary
*** THE SQUARE ***
Sweden
Since Cannes, Ruben Östlund’s The Square has been going around the award ceremonies, grabbing price after price – and for a good reason. The film feels alienated and cold in its’ nasty satirical tone, which is exactly where it aims.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
NOMINEES
*** DARKEST HOUR ***
Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick
However they managed to make Gary Oldman into an overweight old man is beyond me to understand, but as fat suits go, the work was brilliant.
VICTORIA & ABDUL
Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
WONDER
Arjen Tuiten
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
NOMINEES
DUNKIRK
Hans Zimmer
PHANTOM THREAD
Jonny Greenwood
*** THE SHAPE OF WATER ***
Alexandre Desplat
Beautiful, jazzy soundtrack that fits the film’s magical world like a nail in the head. Together with the beautiful production design and costumes, the music takes the viewer into the strange world of Del Toro and leaves no questions open whether or not it could happen.
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
John Williams
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Carter Burwell
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
NOMINEES
*** MIGHTY RIVER ***
from Mudbound; Music and Lyric by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
MYSTERY OF LOVE
from Call Me by Your Name; Music and Lyric by Sufjan Stevens
REMEMBER ME
from Coco; Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
STAND UP FOR SOMETHING
from Marshall; Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Lonnie R. Lynn and Diane Warren
THIS IS ME
from The Greatest Showman; Music and Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
BEST PICTURE
NOMINEES
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges and Marco Morabito, Producers
DARKEST HOUR
Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten and Douglas Urbanski, Producers
DUNKIRK
Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
GET OUT
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr. and Jordan Peele, Producers
LADY BIRD
Scott Rudin, Eli Bush and Evelyn O’Neill, Producers
PHANTOM THREAD
JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison and Daniel Lupi, Producers
THE POST
Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
*** THE SHAPE OF WATER ***
Guillermo del Toro and J. Miles Dale, Producers
I think Del Toro’s magic reaches from screen to the Academy; the film speaks to both older and younger generation, to both filmmakers and film lovers and is the most special, defined movie of the year. Also, given its’ award run so far, I’d be surprised if it didn’t take home this one as well.
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
PRODUCTION DESIGN
NOMINEES
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
BLADE RUNNER 2049
Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Alessandra Querzola
DARKEST HOUR
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
DUNKIRK
Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
*** THE SHAPE OF WATER ***
Production Design: Paul Denham Austerberry; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau and Jeffrey A. Melvin
This is a tricky fight between Blade Runner and Shape of Water, but this year is definitely Del Toro’s year, so it’s very probable Production Design goes here as well.
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
NOMINEES
DEAR BASKETBALL
Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant
GARDEN PARTY
Victor Caire and Gabriel Grapperon
*** LOU ***
Dave Mullins and Dana Murray
NEGATIVE SPACE
Max Porter and Ru Kuwahata
REVOLTING RHYMES
Jakob Schuh and Jan Lachauer
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
NOMINEES
DEKALB ELEMENTARY
Reed Van Dyk
*** THE ELEVEN O’CLOCK ***
Derin Seale and Josh Lawson
MY NEPHEW EMMETT
Kevin Wilson, Jr.
THE SILENT CHILD
Chris Overton and Rachel Shenton
WATU WOTE/ALL OF US
Katja Benrath and Tobias Rosen
SOUND EDITING
NOMINEES
BABY DRIVER
Julian Slater
BLADE RUNNER 2049
Mark Mangini and Theo Green
DUNKIRK
Richard King and Alex Gibson
*** THE SHAPE OF WATER ***
Nathan Robitaille and Nelson Ferreira
The technical Oscars will definitely go to The Shape of Water.
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce
SOUND MIXING
NOMINEES
BABY DRIVER
Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin and Mary H. Ellis
BLADE RUNNER 2049
Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth
DUNKIRK
Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo and Mark Weingarten
*** THE SHAPE OF WATER ***
Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Glen Gauthier
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Stuart Wilson
VISUAL EFFECTS
NOMINEES
BLADE RUNNER 2049
John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2
Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner and Dan Sudick
KONG: SKULL ISLAND
Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza and Mike Meinardus
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould
*** WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES ***
Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist
For the first time in my life I’ve seen visual effects so good that they would fool me. At least that I know of. The apes of War for the Planet of the Apes are just next level amazing…
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
NOMINEES
*** CALL ME BY YOUR NAME ***
Screenplay by James Ivory
My personal favorite of the year, and although it won’t be winning big in any category, the script could easily fall here. Great characters, very believable setting and a surprising story that manages to tell a love story in a way that’s just relatable and beautiful without feeling tacky or fake.
THE DISASTER ARTIST
Screenplay by Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
LOGAN
Screenplay by Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green; Story by James Mangold
MOLLY’S GAME
Written for the screen by Aaron Sorkin
MUDBOUND
Screenplay by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
NOMINEES
THE BIG SICK
Written by Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
GET OUT
Written by Jordan Peele
LADY BIRD
Written by Greta Gerwig
THE SHAPE OF WATER
Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor; Story by Guillermo del Toro
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Written by Martin McDonagh
DENZEL WASHINGTON
Roman J. Israel, Esq.
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